Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction: Baum's Attackers Eye Breakthrough Against Lustrinelli's Resilient Side

Augsburg host Union Berlin at the WWK Arena on 24 October 2026, Bundesliga Matchday 7 and there's a quiet desperation to both teams' situations, with Augsburg sitting 10th on eight points from six games but winless in their last four league outings, whereas Union are worse off still, 17th with five points and an away record grim enough to make anything other than a defeat feel like a minor achievement.

Neither Manuel Baum nor Mauro Lustrinelli has faced the other as a manager before. Baum took permanent charge of Augsburg in May 2026 after Sandro Wagner's December 2025 exit, while Lustrinelli arrived at Union in July 2026 following an interim spell under Marie-Louise Eta after Steffen Baumgart left in April.

Augsburg's most recent league outing tells you everything about their season so far: a 3-4 defeat to Elversberg on 17 October, entertaining and thoroughly alarming in equal measure, a game they scored in, conceded in and ultimately didn't win. Union, by contrast, have quietly begun to look like a different side under Lustrinelli. A goalless draw at Dortmund followed a 1-0 win over Elversberg earlier in the month and while neither result sets pulses racing, back to back clean sheets represent a real turnaround for a club that had shipped ten goals in their first four games.

Augsburg lose their first choice left centre back in Noahkai Banks (knee/LCL) and their most progressive midfielder in Alexis Claude-Maurice (thigh) in the same selection meeting and without Claude-Maurice, Fabian Rieder and Han-Noah Massengo will need to press high and still maintain shape, which is a difficult ask. Union travel without Andrej Ilic (illness), Andrik Markgraf (ACL) and Stanley Nsoki (muscle), leaving Lustrinelli short across the backline and without a natural target man up front, three absences at once in a run of fixtures he simply cannot afford to lose.

Michael Gregoritsch is the reference point up front for Augsburg, physically awkward for defenders and someone who holds the ball up under pressure and converts from close range. Union, missing two of their central defenders, will have to defend set pieces with makeshift cover and Gregoritsch's aerial dominance becomes considerably more dangerous in that context. Tim Skarke thrives on quick transitions and will look to exploit the space behind Banks's replacement, while Rani Khedira does the unglamorous work in midfield that makes the whole thing function. Rieder and Massengo against Khedira is the contest that decides the tempo and probably the result.

Augsburg have won three of their last five home games against Union but the most recent meeting in May 2026 ended 4-0 to the visitors, a scoreline Baum's players will be well aware of when the temptation to sit back on a lead arises.

Union's recent clean sheets show the defensive work under Lustrinelli is taking hold but those came against Elversberg and Dortmund, a different challenge from what Augsburg will pose on home turf, particularly through Gregoritsch at set pieces against a backline that is already missing two of its three recognised central defenders.

Augsburg to win 2-1. Gregoritsch should find a way through given the makeshift cover at the back, with set pieces the most likely route. Union, unable to sustain pressure without a fit target man, will depend almost entirely on Skarke in transition and Augsburg's backline without Banks is exposed to exactly that threat, which is where the away goal comes from. Keeping Augsburg out for 90 minutes, short of two centre backs, on the road, against a side chasing a first win in five, is more than this Union squad can currently manage.