Borussia Dortmund host Hamburger SV at Signal Iduna Park on 29 August 2026 for the Bundesliga's opening day. Dortmund finished second in 2025/26 with 73 points, 16 behind Bayern Munich and come into this hungry for a fast start under Niko Kovač. Hamburger SV, back in the top flight after promotion and 13th in their first season back, face a stiffer test than anything they encountered on the way up. Dortmund have won six of their last seven meetings with Hamburg and their last four home games against Hamburg have all ended in wins - a record that makes the pre match narrative fairly straightforward.
Kovač is unbeaten in six meetings with Hamburger SV, winning four and drawing two since taking over from Nuri Şahin on 2 February 2025, who had himself replaced Mike Tullberg in January. On the other bench, Merlin Polzin has been Hamburg's permanent manager since December 2024, stepping up from a caretaker role to replace Steffen Baumgart and has yet to face Kovač in a competitive fixture.
Dortmund's pre season form was uneven: they beat Arsenal 3-2 on 9 August and drew 2-2 with Roma on 15 August before losing to Bayern 1-2 in the Super Cup on 22 August. Hamburg arrive in better shape after a 3-0 win over SC Verl in late August, keeping a clean sheet and scoring three, confirming at least that Polzin had his shape right going into the week.
Dortmund are missing Emre Can (knee cruciate), Nico Schlotterbeck (ankle) and possibly Ramy Bensebaini, who is doubtful with bruised ribs, leaving Kovač to improvise across central defence and midfield. Waldemar Anton should anchor the back line with Jobe Bellingham in midfield behind Serhou Guirassy and Maximilian Beier. Hamburg are similarly short handed: Jordan Torunarigha, Miro Muheim and Warmed Omari are all out, hollowing out Polzin's defensive options.
Kovač runs a 4-3-3 built on relentless pressing and fast transitions. With Anton covering for the absent Schlotterbeck, Dortmund's back line will be tested whenever Hamburg get forward, though their defensive concerns are probably outweighed by Hamburg's own. Albert Grønbæk, who has five goal involvements in his last four appearances and new signing Patson Daka are Polzin's best counter attacking options. The central battle between Grønbæk and Bellingham is the one that matters most: if Grønbæk wins it, Hamburg can slow the game down and make Dortmund work, if Bellingham wins it, the press becomes a wall. The other danger is more straightforward, with Beier running at Hamburg's makeshift full back positions, where the hosts already have a numbers advantage they are likely to exploit.
Bundesliga matches between these two average around 3.6 goals per game and no Signal Iduna Park meeting has ever ended goalless, with the most recent encounter ending 3-2 to Dortmund in March 2026. Hamburg's set piece threat becomes more dangerous against a reshuffled Dortmund back line, especially without Bensebaini, though Dortmund have the aerial quality at both ends to match it. The game kicks off at 18:30 local time and the crowd will be loud.
The call here is a 3-0 Dortmund win. Even with Can and Schlotterbeck out, Guirassy is well placed to open things up from a transition, Beier to punish Hamburg's stretched defence before half time and a late third from a set piece or counter to close it out. Polzin's side will have their moments through Grønbæk and Daka but three defensive absentees is simply too much ground to make up against Dortmund pressing hard at home.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
