Borussia Dortmund host SC Paderborn on 12 September 2026 in Bundesliga Matchweek 3 and the gap between these two sides couldn't be much wider. Dortmund sit third with six points from two games and five goals already scored, whereas Paderborn arrive as newly promoted survivors in 12th with a single point from their opening two outings - a mismatch severe enough that Kettemann's men had little time to breathe after Dortmund put away Villarreal 3-2 in the Champions League just days before.
Niko Kovac has been in the job since 2 February 2025, when he replaced Nuri Sahin and has shaped Dortmund around a 3-4-2-1 built on attacking possession and width. Ralf Kettemann, appointed at Paderborn on 1 July 2025 after Lukas Kwasniok departed, is the man trying to contain him, though the two have never faced each other before, leaving no tactical template to reference.
Dortmund's last five games show a side navigating a hectic calendar: wins over Hoffenheim (3-2), Hamburger SV (2-0) and Heidenheim (5-0) alongside a Super Cup defeat to Bayern and a Champions League win over Villarreal. Paderborn's form reads L-D-W, a narrow Bundesliga loss to Freiburg, a goalless draw at Mainz and a DFB-Pokal win over Lubeck, though none of it tells us much about how they will cope at Signal Iduna Park.
Dortmund are dealing with a bruising injury list: Nico Schlotterbeck, Emre Can (knee/ACL), Ramy Bensebaini (rib), Giannis Konstantelias (ACL) and Justin Lerma (thigh) are all out, forcing Waldemar Anton into the captaincy and putting real pressure on Jobe Bellingham to anchor midfield. Paderborn are in similarly difficult shape, with Felix Gotze (head), Sven Michel (groin), Timur Gayret (ACL) and Lasse Eickel (back) all sidelined, leaving their forward line and defensive depth notably thinner than Kettemann would want. Marvin Pieringer and Rayan Philippe will lead the line without the cover Michel and Gotze would have provided.
Kovac's 3-4-2-1 gives Dortmund their width through the wing backs, with Serhou Guirassy as the central reference point. Maximilian Beier's runs from deep are the mechanism that turns Guirassy's hold up play into goals and that combination looked sharp against Heidenheim. The defensive line, without Schlotterbeck, Can and Bensebaini, leans heavily on Anton's leadership and Bellingham's ability to screen transitions, which is a lot to ask of a midfielder still in his early twenties.
Paderborn will line up in a 3-5-2, though losing Michel and Gotze hurts both dimensions of their plan: Michel was their most dangerous forward and Gotze had quality on the ball, so Pieringer and Philippe will be working with limited supply from midfield, where Santiago Castaneda and Tjark Scheller face the considerable task of containing Bellingham's carrying and Dortmund's positional game. Dortmund's ball retention will drive them into deeper and deeper blocks.
Kettemann grew up as a Dortmund fan, so he will know exactly what this ground demands of visiting teams. With Gayret and Eickel also out, his options in the phases that might otherwise give Dortmund problems are already stretched thin and if Kovac rotates late the squad quality difference makes any meaningful impact on the result unlikely.
Dortmund have won five of nine meetings, with three draws and one Paderborn victory, that lone Paderborn win coming in a 3-0.
Castaneda can deliver a ball and Pieringer has the aerial presence to threaten from corners and free kicks and those are realistically the clearest opportunities Paderborn are likely to find. Dortmund's recent high scoring wins suggest they rarely switch off defensively and their attacking transitions should generate enough pressure to deny Paderborn any sustained foothold.
A 4-0 home win looks right. Guirassy's form, Bellingham's control and Paderborn's depleted squad all point toward a multi-goal margin and early open play goals would force Paderborn into riskier defending, opening space for Beier and the supporting attackers. Paderborn's injuries leave them too thin to sustain a defensive shape for 90 minutes at this level.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
