RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Prediction: Demichelis Looks to Steady Ship Against Winless HSV

RB Leipzig welcome Hamburger SV to the Red Bull Arena on 13 September 2026 for Bundesliga Matchday 3. Leipzig sit around eighth with three points from two games, needing a convincing home performance to arrest a slide that has seen them lose their last two outings, whereas Hamburger SV are rooted to the bottom with zero points and a goal difference of minus seven after successive heavy defeats, with Merlin Polzin under immediate pressure to stop his side conceding so freely.

Martín Demichelis took charge of Leipzig on 22 June 2026 after replacing Ole Werner, whereas Polzin has been in post at Hamburg since November 2024 when he replaced Steffen Baumgart and the two have never met in competitive football.

Leipzig opened the season with a win before suffering a 3-1 Bundesliga defeat to Werder Bremen and then a 4-1 Champions League loss to Como, a run that also exposed how badly they can be hurt once the high press is bypassed. Hamburg's situation is bleaker still, having lost 0-5 to Mainz in their most recent match after going down in their opener too.

Leipzig are without Christoph Baumgartner (thigh), Rocco Reitz (hamstring), Viggo Gebel (knee) and Lukas Klostermann (groin), which thins out both the midfield and the defensive cover significantly. Demichelis will lean heavily on Christopher Nkunku, the primary creator in this side and on Willi Orbán at the heart of the defence, with Antonio Nusa as the left-sided player tasked with getting in behind Hamburg's wingbacks.

Hamburg's injury list is longer and arguably more damaging. Fernando Dickes (shoulder), Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit (ankle) and Sebastiaan Bornauw (inactive, questionable) are all out or doubtful, as are Immanuel Pherai (illness), Albert Sambi Lokonga (back), Miro Muheim (muscle) and Warmed Omari (shoulder). That leaves Polzin short of experienced centre backs and midfield cover, which means a more rigid, defensive shape is almost certainly coming.

Leipzig are likely to line up in a 4-3-3 and press high from the front. Nkunku drops between the lines to receive and turn, while Nusa provides the direct dribbling threat on the left that can isolate full backs. Without Baumgartner and Reitz, Demichelis may be forced to go more direct earlier than he would like and Orbán's aerial presence at corners could matter more than usual given how much Leipzig's open play combinations have been disrupted by injury.

Hamburg are likely to set up in a compact 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3, dropping into two banks of four behind the ball rather than engaging in a press battle they cannot win right now. Terem Moffi is the target for balls in behind when Hamburg win possession, with Nicolás Capaldo tasked with making things tick in midfield and Daniel Heuer Fernandes will need a strong performance in goal. With multiple defenders and midfielders missing, maintaining a high defensive line is not a realistic option for Polzin, so expect Hamburg to absorb and then release Moffi in transition.

If Leipzig bypass Capaldo early and get Nkunku on the ball in space, Hamburg's cover is thin enough that the game could be over by the hour. Hamburg's best hope is limiting Nkunku's room, though doing that without Pherai, Lokonga or a fit centre back partnership is a different proposition entirely.

Leipzig have won six of eight previous meetings between these sides, losing just once, including both 2025/26 Bundesliga clashes by 2-1. They have scored first in five of the last six and have never been shut out in this fixture.

Leipzig to win 2-0, getting enough of the ball in Hamburg's half to put Nkunku and Nusa in positions to threaten the makeshift back line repeatedly. With three of their usual centre backs absent, Hamburg have no obvious solution to aerial threats or one on one situations wide and the side that shipped nine goals across two games is not well placed to keep a clean sheet even against a Leipzig outfit carrying its own injury concerns. A goal before half time would likely push Polzin into a more open approach, opening gaps Leipzig are well set up to exploit for a second. With Pherai and Lokonga both out, Hamburg have no fit midfielder capable of progressing the ball past Leipzig's press. Demichelis gets his first home win.