Udinese vs Como Prediction: Fàbregas' Possession Game to Edge Runjaić's Counter-Attack in Serie A Opener

Serie A returns on 22 August 2026 with Udinese hosting Como at Bluenergy Stadium and whether Udinese's direct counter attacking game can hold up against Como's patient possession build up is the central question round one poses.

This is the first time Runjaić and Fàbregas have faced each other as managers, so there is no personal history to unpick and the game comes down purely to systems. Runjaić took the Udinese job on 14 June 2024 after Fabio Cannavaro was replaced and Fàbregas followed a month later on 19 July 2024 when Osian Roberts moved into a development role.

Neither side has competitive league form to draw on but preseason gives some pointers. Udinese beat Padova 1-0 in a Coppa Italia preparatory match on 15 August and won the Friuli Venezia Giulia Cup, suggesting Runjaić had his defensive structure organised well before the season opener, though a single result against regional opposition only tells you so much. Como lost 2-0 to Liverpool in a late July friendly, a scoreline that reflected some difficulty keeping the ball under a high press, though how much of that was deliberate tactical instruction from Fàbregas rather than genuine difficulty is hard to read from one game.

Absences will shape both lineups. Udinese are missing Alessandro Zanoli (cruciate ligament), Giorgi Chakvetadze (broken finger/foot) and Christian Kabasele (suspended), losing a reliable full back, a creative midfielder and the centre back who anchors their back three all at once. Como are without Jayden Addai (Achilles), whose ability to isolate full backs and get to the byline leaves them short of a direct wide option. Runjaić will lean on Zaniolo, Keinan Davis and Jesper Karlström, while Fàbregas has Nico Paz, Martin Baturina, Anastasios Douvikas and Yan Couto to work with.

Udinese will line up in a 3-4-2-1 designed to hold a narrow mid block and spring Zaniolo into space behind Como's first press. The three centre backs sit narrow and invite Como to play in front of them, while Karlström operates as the midfield screen whose positioning becomes even more critical with Kabasele suspended, because any gap in that screen leaves the back three directly exposed. Without Chakvetadze and Zanoli, Udinese also lose width and dribbling quality in the final third, pushing Davis to hold the line up front alone and the wing backs will need to track back and cover channels while still contributing forward, a considerable demand on a threadbare squad.

Como's 4-2-3-1 is built around Paz and Baturina interchanging behind Douvikas, with Paz dropping into the left half space to draw Karlström across and free Baturina's run on the far side, while Couto pushes high on the right to force whoever replaces Kabasele at left sided centre back into decisions he will need to make without an experienced partner alongside him. Losing Addai removes a direct threat to get to the byline but the remaining quartet is still capable of retaining the ball in dangerous areas for long periods.

The individual match ups that will likely decide this are Zaniolo against Como's double pivot and Paz against Karlström in the middle. Zaniolo is the one player in Udinese's setup who can carry the ball from deep and play the final pass himself without needing an extra touch, so how well Como's pivot tracks his runs in behind matters considerably. Como, for their part, will look to play out through Karlström's positioning as a third centre back option when pressed and if they can pin him back, Baturina's movement behind Udinese's wing backs becomes significantly more dangerous.

Como have the edge in Serie A meetings between these two, winning two from four to Udinese's one, with one draw. The run goes: a 1-0 Udinese win in September 2024, a 4-1 Como win in January 2025, a 1-0 Como win in January 2026 and a 0-0 draw in April 2026. Udinese have kept it tight at home but shipped five across the two Como victories, conceding more than once in the second half on both occasions.

Set pieces could be where the absences really bite. Kabasele was Udinese's tallest centre back and led their clearance count in set piece situations last season and his absence leaves a gap at the back post that Douvikas, at 6ft 2in, becomes a more meaningful option to exploit from corners than he would be against a full strength back three. Como's ability to retain the ball after second balls should also limit Udinese's opportunities to build counter pressure.

Como to win 1-2. Paz and Baturina should find enough space between Udinese's lines to keep the ball in dangerous areas for long periods and with three notable absentees stripping out both defensive structure and transition quality, Udinese are short where it hurts most. Runjaić's side will sit in their 3-4-2-1 and look for Zaniolo in behind and Zaniolo, if he gets time between the lines, has the range to find Davis in behind Como's high defensive line. Without Kabasele and Chakvetadze, though, Udinese's structure looks too thin to absorb a full 90 minutes of Como's combination play. Como score first through Paz or Baturina combining, Udinese respond through Zaniolo on the counter and a late goal from Douvikas or a substitute settles it.