Ajax vs Willem II Prediction: Dominant Hosts Set to Exploit Relegation-Battling Visitors

Ajax are fifth in the Eredivisie after five matches with 10 points from three wins, a draw and a defeat, while Willem II sit 17th with two points and no wins from their opening five, having conceded 14 goals across that run. The hosts have also navigated Conference League qualifying against Sion without their home record suffering, whereas Willem II, promoted in the summer, have looked defensively shaky from the very first weekend. Michel and John Stegeman have no prior meetings as managers, so nothing in the coaching record tells us anything useful before a ball is kicked.

Ajax come in sharp after a 5-1 win over Fortuna Sittard on 12 September, though their broader five match run including European games has been patchier (W-D-L-L-W) than that result suggests. Willem II drew 1-1 at AZ Alkmaar on 11 September, a reasonable point on the road but a D-L-D-L-L run overall has exposed a side conceding freely and creating chances they cannot put away.

Ajax report no injuries ahead of the game. Willem II are without Justin Hoogma, their regular centre back starter, which is a significant problem against a side that regularly works the ball wide and punishes teams in the air.

Michel's Ajax average between 59 and 62 per cent possession through a 4-3-3 with Berghuis cutting in from the right, Klaassen arriving late from midfield and Kehrer pushing forward from deep. Brobbey's movement drags centre backs out of position and opens lanes for Berghuis, with Arokodare capable of shifting the shape more directly when Ajax want a second body up front. Willem II under Stegeman operate on between 38 and 42 per cent possession, with their attacking threat concentrated through Haen, who has three goals already, van Aalst contributing from midfield and Tjoe-A-On offering versatility across the back and middle. Without Hoogma, the back line loses its most experienced head and Ajax's preferred routes, width and aerial delivery, go straight at whatever cover Willem II must improvise. Ajax press high and break lines quickly, with Brobbey and Berghuis hunting full backs while Klaassen occupies the space behind them. Willem II will look for Haen on the counter but with so much defensive work ahead of them, those moments will be scarce.

Ajax have won all five of their recent meetings with Willem II with games averaging around 2.8 goals and Hoogma's absence reduces the visitors both in defending set pieces and threatening them, while Ajax's backline is well organised in the air. Willem II are a point above the automatic relegation zone with nothing to show from five attempts and their low possession style means the afternoon will largely be spent defending. Ajax arrive off a European win and a five goal league performance and the gap between the two squads on current evidence is hard to argue with.

Ajax 4-0 Willem II. Hoogma's absence leaves a defence that was already struggling even more exposed, with Berghuis likely to exploit the improvised cover on the right and Klaassen finding space as Willem II tire. A clean sheet looks probable given how little the visitors have created away from home.