Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax Prediction: Can Buijs' Compact Setup Halt Sánchez's High Press?

Fortuna Sittard host Ajax at the Fortuna Sittard Stadion on 12 September 2026, with both sides sitting in the upper half of the Eredivisie after an uneven start. Fortuna are sixth with 10 points from five games, Ajax eighth with seven from four. On paper there's some ground between them but this fixture matters more than the table implies right now. Fortuna arrive off a 3-2 win at ADO Den Haag, while Ajax come in wounded from a 1-3 home defeat to PSV. A home win closes the gap at the top, an Ajax win puts that PSV result firmly behind them.

Danny Buijs has been at Fortuna since July 2023, while Míchel Sánchez only took over at Ajax in June 2026 as the fourth man to hold the post since November 2025 and the two coaches have no recorded head to head before this one.

Fortuna's last five reads D-W-L-W-W, with back to back 3-2 wins over FC Groningen and ADO Den Haag following a 0-2 loss at AZ Alkmaar on 22 August. Seven points from those last three games, including both of those wins coming by the same scoreline, suggests a side that doesn't protect leads so much as chase them. Ajax's recent sequence is W-D-W-L, the 1-3 defeat to PSV on 5 September the one that matters here, where opponents found it far too easy to bypass the press.

Fortuna are without Iván Márquez and Sven Simons through injury, thinning their midfield screen and pushing the defensive shape to hold its structure for longer without either player to screen it. Ajax are missing Aaron Bouwman, out for the month with a sternum and bruised lung injury and Daley Blind, also sidelined, which removes Bouwman's composure in build up and Blind's ability to drop into the backline, two functions Ajax don't have obvious cover for.

Fortuna sit narrow between the lines, with Mohamed Ihattaren as the hinge the whole system runs through: he receives under pressure and switches play quickly to spring breaks forward. With Márquez and Simons out, he'll need to drop deeper to help recycle possession and the question is how much that limits his influence higher up the pitch where he's most dangerous.

Ajax under Sánchez press aggressively in a 4-3-3, with full backs pushing into attack and the central midfielders hunting the ball in advanced areas. Steven Berghuis drifts into half spaces to connect with the forwards and is the player Ajax look to when they need to unlock a low block. The loss of Bouwman removes a composed ball progressor from the back line, so Sánchez's side may end up bypassing the press resistance phase altogether and going direct to Berghuis earlier than planned.

The key battle is whether Ihattaren can find pockets before Ajax's pressing triggers kick in. Fortuna winning second balls and releasing him early would stretch Ajax's high line, whereas if the press forces Fortuna's defenders into wide clearances, Berghuis picking up second balls in central areas becomes the immediate danger. Blind's absence also reduces Ajax's option to drop a midfielder into the back line during build up, leaving space on the counter that Fortuna's transitions, built around Ihattaren's quick switches, are designed for.

Ajax have dominated this fixture historically with scorelines like 5-0 and 4-1 in recent meetings and the resource gap between the clubs is real. With Márquez and Simons out, Fortuna's dead ball routines become more important, one of the few ways to threaten Ajax without committing players forward, while Ajax will try to use the press to earn corners and free kicks in dangerous positions, where Berghuis's delivery gives them another route to goal.

Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Ajax. Once the high press starts generating turnovers, Ajax should create enough to win, though Fortuna have shown enough recently to get one back, most likely from a set piece or a counter when Ajax commit forward. The 1-2 reflects how this probably plays out: Ajax controlling large stretches, Fortuna threatening on the counter every time Ajax lose the ball high and a set piece always in the background.