Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction: Excelsior's Attack to Test Stegeman's Defence

Willem II host Excelsior at the Koning Willem II Stadion on 5 September 2026 in Eredivisie Gameweek 5. Both clubs came up recently and this is an early test of how well each has settled at the top level. Willem II are failing it, sitting 15th after three matches with just one point and ten goals conceded, while Excelsior are eighth on six points with a positive goal difference. A third straight defeat for the hosts would leave them with one point from four games and ten goals conceded. The kind of start that ends managers.

John Stegeman took charge at Willem II on 1 July 2025, replacing interim manager Kristof Aelbrecht, while Ruben den Uil has led Excelsior since 1 July 2024 after replacing Marinus Dijkhuizen and they haven't met enough times to draw meaningful conclusions from their head to head record. Willem II's recent sequence reads D-L-L: a 2-2 draw with Heerenveen, then back to back 1-4 defeats to NEC and Go Ahead Eagles, each time with a reasonable start followed by defensive collapse. Excelsior's form reads W-L-W, with wins over Sparta Rotterdam (2-1 on 29 August) sandwiching a narrow 1-2 defeat at PSV and they've shown they can score on the counter and hold their shape under pressure.

Willem II are badly disrupted going into this one. Thomas Didillon-Hodl (hamstring) and Amine Lachkar (groin) are both out, as are Anass Zarrouk (post surgery), Armin Culum (foot) and Lasse Abildgaard, who has left the club entirely, leaving the back four and double pivot short of their usual cover. Excelsior have fewer worries, though Noah Naujoks is ruled out through inactivity and both Kasper Bos (shoulder) and David Garden are doubtful, with Bos's absence potentially affecting set piece organisation and midfield rotation.

Stegeman tends to set Willem II up in a 4-2-3-1 built around defensive organisation and quick transitions but losing multiple centre backs and midfielders has left the double pivot short on its usual screening capacity. Devin Haen, Willem II's top scorer with two goals this season, will lead the line but may need to drop deep if service is limited, while Nathan Tjoe-A-On offers flexibility across midfield and defence and Jaden Slory gives them width. Excelsior's 4-3-3 is built on possession and a youthful attacking structure: Aymen Sliti is their danger man, a midfielder attacker who generates shots and big chances, Irakli Yegoian drives at defenders from central areas and captain Casper Widell anchors the defence and has scored from set pieces this season, with Naujoks' absence thinning the midfield bench without removing the real threats.

The midfield battle between Sliti and Tjoe-A-On is probably where this game gets decided. If Willem II lose that duel, Excelsior's wingers will find space to combine and a defence that has already let in ten goals in three matches has no room to be caught out of shape again. If Haen and Slory click on the counter there's a goal in Willem II too, since Excelsior's high line carries some risk at the back but the weight of injuries makes it hard to see Stegeman's side staying organised for ninety minutes.

The head to head record gives Willem II the last two wins, though both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings and there's nothing in the history to suggest either side dominates. Widell has scored from set pieces this season and, without their regular defenders, Willem II could struggle with him aerially, while Haen offers some threat from dead balls in the other direction. Three matches in with one point, the pressure on Stegeman's side is real and things get considerably harder if they slip further behind.

Willem II 1-2 Excelsior. Sliti and Yegoian are the most likely creators, with Widell a threat from set pieces and Excelsior's high line the main vulnerability at the other end. Willem II will probably score, with Haen or Slory on the counter the most realistic routes but keeping a clean sheet against a side this well drilled looks beyond a defence as thin as this one.