Vitória Guimarães host CD Nacional at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques on 23 August 2026, Matchday 3 of the Primeira Liga. The table two rounds in already tells two very different stories: Vitória are 16th with nothing from their opening pair of games, whereas Nacional are fifth with four points. The added curiosity is that Vitória coach Tiago Margarido replaced João Gião at Nacional in the summer and Gião then took Margarido's old job, though whether that subplot plays out on the pitch is another matter.
Margarido and Gião have never faced each other as managers, with Margarido taking charge at Vitória on 1 July 2026 after Gião was appointed at Nacional on 26 May 2026 to fill the vacancy Margarido left behind, making this fixture their first meeting across a touchline.
Vitória have lost both of their opening matches, 0-1 at Arouca and 2-3 at home to Sporting CP and neither defeat was as comfortable as the scorelines suggest given that they created chances in both games but couldn't finish when it mattered. Nacional, meanwhile, have a win and a draw from their two outings and sit comfortably in fifth.
Vitória have no reported absences and should be at full strength, whereas Nacional are missing Ulisses through injury and have José Gomes as a doubt, still only doing conditioned work after his own injury. Losing two forward options before a game away at a side that badly needs a win is not ideal and it will push Gião toward a more conservative shape than he might otherwise choose.
Vitória are organised at home and hard to break down, with Samu leading the line in attack, holding up play for runners arriving from midfield. After two defeats the frustrating thing for the coaching staff is that the chances have been there and conversion has been the problem. Nacional like to rotate between their forwards and midfielders rather than rely on a fixed striker, which creates problems for defences trying to track runners but without Ulisses and with Gomes doubtful that responsibility falls more heavily on Paulinho Bóia and Miguel Baeza, making Nacional's attack more predictable than it might otherwise be. Whether Vitória can stay compact enough to slow those rotations while still generating the counters they need is the question the game will answer: if Samu gets quick service on the break he poses a real threat and if Nacional's midfielders find space to play through the press, Vitória's back line, which has already conceded five times in two games, will be in trouble.
Vitória have the better of recent meetings, winning two and drawing one of the last four since 2023. Historical data generally favours the home side in this fixture, though Nacional's current form and Vitória's rough start complicate any straightforward reading of that trend.
Prediction: 3-3. Vitória need the points badly enough to press high and leave gaps, while Nacional's attacking intent combined with their injury enforced reshuffling makes them likely to concede as well as score. Ulisses's absence removes a defensive outlet from Nacional's forward line and Gomes's doubtful status only adds to that.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
