Alavés vs Osasuna Prediction: Hosts Eye European Momentum in Tight La Liga Clash

Deportivo Alavés host CA Osasuna at Mendizorrotza on 6 September 2026, a Matchday 4 fixture that matters more than its calendar position suggests. Both sides sit on seven points after three games, with Alavés fifth and Osasuna sixth and a loss here drops one of them out of the European conversation before the first international break.

Quique Sánchez Flores has been in charge at Alavés since 3 March 2026, when he replaced Eduardo Coudet, whereas Luis Miguel Ramis took the Osasuna job on 10 June 2026 after Alessio Lisci departed. Direct head to head data between the two managers is thin given both are relatively new to their posts, though Sánchez Flores has history against Osasuna from previous clubs and comes out ahead overall. Ramis's work at Burgos suggests he'll set Osasuna up compact, which will test Flores's preference for defensive structure and set piece threat.

Alavés have gone W-D-W across their opening three fixtures, beating Villarreal 1-0 on 28 August, drawing 1-1 with Rayo Vallecano on 20 August and opening the season with a 3-0 win over Getafe on 15 August, with two clean sheets from those three outings. Osasuna have gone W-W-D, beating Getafe 1-0 on 31 August and Celta Vigo 2-1 before being held to a 0-0 draw by Levante, having conceded just one goal across all three outings.

Alavés are dealing with a few problems: Toni Martínez is a doubt with a calf or foot injury, Facundo Garcés is suspended and Mikel Rodríguez is out long term with an ACL injury, leaving gaps in attack and central defence that place extra responsibility on Abde Rebbach, Antonio Blanco and Lucas Boyé, with Sivera's role in goal also bigger than usual given the disruption at the back. Osasuna's situation is similarly stretched, with the absences of Jorge Herrando (groin), Aimar Oroz (hamstring) and Valentin Rosier (hamstring) stripping them of their first choice right back, their most creative midfielder and another option in the defensive line simultaneously.

Alavés under Flores typically set up in a compact 5-3-2, prioritising defensive shape and looking to score from set pieces and quick transitions. Rebbach's threat from wide and Blanco's presence in central midfield are what make the system tick and without Boyé available Rebbach is asked to carry more of the attacking burden himself rather than functioning as a wide outlet alongside a target striker. Osasuna run a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 designed to absorb pressure and hit on the break, with Budimir winning aerial duels to hold play up and Jon Moncayola anchoring midfield. These three meetings have produced a 2-2 draw in April 2026, a 3-0 Osasuna win in December 2025 and a 1-1 draw in May 2025, a run that offers a reasonable guide to what to expect: Rosier's absence means a makeshift right back will face Rebbach for ninety minutes and that's where Rebbach can run at a deputy who hasn't yet settled into the system. The individual battles worth watching are Rebbach against Osasuna's full backs and Budimir against the Alavés centre backs.

With Flores putting particular emphasis on set pieces and Osasuna's injury list weakening their aerial options, corners and free kicks from wide will be Alavés's clearest route to goal, whereas Budimir's movement in behind will be Osasuna's primary outlet when they win the ball back. Both clubs need to keep winning to maintain their European ambitions, which adds a nervy quality to a game likely settled by a set piece or a single transition rather than sustained attacking pressure from either side.

We're going for a 2-1 Alavés win. Osasuna are without a first choice right back, their most creative midfielder and a backup defensive option, which should give Rebbach room to run at an unsettled right side. The pattern of tight results between these two sides suggests it won't be straightforward but the unavailability of Herrando, Oroz and Rosier tips the balance towards the hosts, whose set piece strength and home record at this stage of the season make them the side better equipped to close out a tight game, with Budimir likely to get at least one chance when Alavés push for a second.