Match Prediction

Alavés vs Valencia Prediction: Boyé and Home Strength to Overpower Crisis-Hit Visitors

Alavés host a winless Valencia side in La Liga as Quique Sánchez Flores looks to build on strong home form while the visitors adjust to new leadership.

ELO head-to-head

How Alaves and Valencia compare on rating, form and history.

La Liga Round 6 on 15 September 2026 pits Alavés, currently third with 10 points from five matches, against bottom of the table Valencia at Mendizorrotza. Their opponents arrive with one point from the same number of games, a gap to safety that is already uncomfortable this early in September. Valencia made their situation worse by sacking Carlos Corberán on 13 September and handing the job to interim boss Óscar Sánchez, who had less than 48 hours to prepare, which renders the Flores and Corberán head to head record irrelevant before it ever existed.

Alavés' last five reads WDWWL, taking in a 5-2 win over Osasuna and a 1-0 opening day victory over Villarreal before a narrow 1-2 defeat at Racing Santander on 12 September. Valencia's run reads DLLLL, the low point being a 0-5 thrashing at Barcelona before a 0-1 loss to Sevilla just days later.

Alaves vs Valencia article image 1
Credit: Maciej Rogowski | DepositPhotos

Alavés are without Mikel Rodríguez through a cruciate ligament injury, while Valencia are already thin up front with Umar Sadiq ruled out through a hamstring problem and Luis Rioja a doubt with a muscle issue, leaving Arnaut Danjuma as effectively their only forward option of note.

Lucas Boyé is the engine of Alavés' early season form, with four goals already and a style that pulls centre backs out of position and opens channels for Mariano Díaz arriving from deeper. Without Rodríguez, Flores will need his remaining midfielders to stay disciplined and stop Valencia from finding space on the counter.

Valencia's situation is dire: one goal scored in five league games, a new interim manager with no preparation time and a 0-5 hiding at Barcelona that does not leave a squad unaffected. One goal in the three games since suggests as much. Óscar Sánchez will almost certainly set up in a deep defensive block, with Danjuma asked to hold play up or find half chances in behind but without Sadiq and likely without Rioja there is very little backup if that plan produces nothing. Boyé's movement will test Valencia's back line and Díaz's ability to arrive late into the box gives Flores a runner who Valencia's defensive shape is unlikely to pick up if they are focused on Boyé. Set pieces are a live threat here given how depleted Valencia's aerial cover is and the absentees directly weaken their defensive organisation on dead balls.

Alaves vs Valencia article image 2
Credit: Maciej Rogowski | DepositPhotos

Alavés are unbeaten in their last eight home league meetings with Valencia. The overall historical record gives Valencia a slight edge in all time tallies, though that run at Mendizorrotza is the more pertinent number and Alavés have lost only once in five matches this season, a narrow away defeat at Racing Santander that says little about how they perform in front of their own supporters.

Alavés 1-0 Valencia. Boyé gets the goal, Valencia do not register a shot on target worth mentioning and Alavés grind out exactly the kind of win that keeps European football in view while Óscar Sánchez endures the worst possible start to his interim tenure.

Ryan Baldi
Author

Ryan Baldi

Football Writer

Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.

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