Match Prediction

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Can Home Resilience Halt Terzić's High Press?

A tactical breakdown of Levante against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga Matchday 6, exploring how injuries and early-season form shape a likely 1-1 outcome.

ELO head-to-head

How Levante and Athletic Bilbao compare on rating, form and history.

Levante host Athletic Bilbao at the Ciutat de València on 16 September 2026 in La Liga's sixth matchday, with both clubs carrying mixed starts and significant injury disruption into the game. Levante sit 13th on five points from five games whereas Athletic are ninth on seven.

Neither manager has significant history in this fixture, which makes this something of a first real test of their instincts against each other. Edin Terzić took charge of Athletic on 1 July 2026, succeeding Ernesto Valverde, while Luís Castro arrived at Levante on 20 December 2025 after a chain of interim appointments following Julián Calero's exit.

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao article image 1
Credit: Maciej Rogowski | DepositPhotos

Levante's last five reads L D W D L, which tells the story of a team that can beat Real Betis 5-2 one week and then ship three without reply to Espanyol the next. Athletic's sequence is D W W L L: a 3-0 win over Atlético Madrid and 2-0 over Celta Vigo, bracketed by a draw with Elche before back to back defeats to Barcelona and Sevilla. Both teams have shown they can score freely and concede just as easily, so whoever holds their defensive shape better is likely to come out on top.

Levante are without Alejandro Primo (shoulder) and Karl Etta Eyong (thigh, out until around October), losing depth in both goal and attack. Athletic's injury list is longer and harder to absorb: Dani Vivian is out with a groin problem, Unai Egiluz is gone until around January 2027 with an ACL tear, Gorka Guruzeta and Peio Canales are both doubts with muscular issues and Iñaki Williams is also carrying something of uncertain nature. Losing Vivian from central defence and Guruzeta as the hold up striker are the two that matter most tactically.

Castro sets Levante up in a 4-1-4-1 or similar shape built on staying compact in two banks of four and waiting for Athletic to overcommit. Roger Brugué is the team's leading scorer, with Iván Romero alongside him in advanced areas, Aïssa Mandi organising the backline and Enzo Bardeli sitting in front of it. Eyong's absence strips Levante of a player who holds the line and wins headers at set pieces, pushing them toward combinations through the middle and leaving Brugué as the only forward who can chase a ball over the top.

Terzić has Athletic pressing high in a 4-2-3-1 that relies on winning the ball back quickly and attacking in numbers. Oihan Sancet connects the press to the attack through the middle, dropping deep to receive before turning and driving forward, while Nico Williams cuts inside from wide positions and Robert Navarro covers across the forward line. With Guruzeta and Canales doubtful, Vivian absent and Egiluz long term out, Terzić may need to rotate younger players into the XI and moderate the press in stretches to manage energy, which gives Levante space to run into when Athletic lose the ball high up.

The absences shape most of the interesting individual contests. Brugué will target whoever replaces Vivian in central defence and that player is likely to be more direct and less comfortable when Levante press high. Bardeli needs to stop Sancet before he can drop deep and turn, because if Sancet finds space to face forward, Athletic have their clearest route through the middle and Levante's full backs could find more room than usual if Williams is limited or absent.

Athletic hold a clear historical edge with 17 wins from 26 meetings against five for Levante, winning the last three encounters. The most recent fixture ended 4-2 to Athletic in February 2026 and Levante haven't beaten them since December 2018, though the home side's ability to sit deep and catch Athletic on the break makes an upset possible.

Levante vs Athletic Bilbao article image 2
Credit: P.Dziurman/REPORTER | P.Dziurman | DepositPhotos

With both squads thinned in central defence, set pieces could decide this, given that a well-worked corner or free kick carries more weight than usual when cover at the back is stretched. Mandi's positioning at defensive corners will be tested against whatever combination Terzić puts out at the back and Levante will look to use Brugué's movement on attacking deliveries to threaten an Athletic side short of cover in the air. Home crowd noise and the need for points push Castro's side toward staying compact and absorbing pressure.

Levante have enough structure to frustrate Athletic's press for long periods, particularly with Bilbao missing several players who normally sustain that intensity across 90 minutes. The home side can find the opener through a counter involving Brugué or Romero but Sancet and Nico Williams are both capable of producing a goal from very little and one passage of play could level it. A draw makes most sense: both sides have the injuries to prevent them from being convincing and neither looks like winning by more than a goal, making 1-1 the most reasonable call.

Ryan Baldi
Author

Ryan Baldi

Football Writer

Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.

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