Racing Santander vs Alavés Prediction: Visitors Aim to Maintain Historic Start in La Liga Clash

Racing Santander host Alavés on 12 September 2026 in La Liga Matchweek 5 and the gap between these two sides right now is stark. Alavés sit second with 10 points from four games, their best ever start in the top flight, while Racing are 13th with four points. Both have reasons to push: Racing to avoid an early drift towards the relegation zone, Alavés to prove this is not just a hot streak. José Alberto López has been at the Racing helm since December 2022, while Quique Sánchez Flores only arrived at Alavés in March 2026 and the two have barely crossed paths as managers, so there is no meaningful pattern to draw from their meetings.

Racing come in with a bumpy recent run, the 2-3 defeat to Rayo Vallecano on 5 September only the latest stumble after a 0-1 loss to Getafe earlier in the month. Alavés are in a different gear entirely, going four unbeaten with a 5-2 thrashing of Osasuna on 6 September as their most recent outing, following a 1-0 win over Villarreal and a 1-1 draw with Rayo before that.

Racing are without Simon Eriksson (shoulder), Andrés Martín (knee) and Pedro Felipe (hamstring). Losing Eriksson and Martín leaves them short in the middle of the pitch: Martín covered ground and pressed high to keep opponents at arm's length, while Eriksson was the one winning defensive duels that stopped teams getting easy runs at the back. Pedro Felipe's absence on the right means that flank now needs covering by someone who was not the plan and taken together these are not peripheral losses - they are the kind of absences that scramble a team's balance. Alavés have their own problems, with Toni Martínez out with a calf injury, Facundo Garcés unavailable and Mikel Rodríguez missing too, though losing Martínez hurts the most given how dangerous Alavés have been in front of goal.

Racing tend to work off the counter but without Eriksson, Martín and Pedro Felipe, the plan gets thinner fast. Yassir Zabiri, three goals already this season, is the likeliest way they find the net. Sergio Canales carries from deep, plays through lines and switches the ball to the flanks, while Iñigo Vicente cuts inside from the left and looks for the half space rather than holding a wide position.

Alavés press high and sit in a compact mid block when they lose possession, transitioning quickly through Lucas Boyé, who has four goals in four games. Antonio Blanco sits deep to free the front players and Mariano Díaz peels off the shoulder of the last defender to combine with Boyé, pulling backlines apart when it clicks. The question for Sánchez Flores is whether losing Martínez, Garcés and Rodríguez forces him to overload his first choice forwards rather than managing their minutes.

Canales versus Blanco in the middle third is probably the decisive matchup: if Canales wins it, Racing have a chance to get Vicente onto the ball in space. But Boyé running in behind against a Racing defence missing Eriksson feels like the more likely source of goals and Alavés have conceded just three times in four matches, so Racing will need something special to hurt them.

Alavés have won three and drawn two of the last five meetings and the historical record goes further back in their favour since Racing have not beaten them since around 2003, suggesting away trips in this fixture do not bother Alavés much.

Racing's injury absences may disrupt their defensive shape at dead balls, which matters given Alavés's ability to exploit set pieces when they have a clear delivery target. Sánchez Flores won the August Coach of the Month award on the back of four wins and a draw.

Alavés to win 2-1. Boyé's runs in behind a defence missing Eriksson are the clearest mismatch on the pitch and with Alavés conceding just three times in four games, Racing will need to be exceptional to breach that. Canales and Vicente give them a genuine route to goal but three key absences make it very hard to see Racing keeping Alavés quiet at the other end.